Understanding Factors That Influence Attorneys’ Plea Recommendations
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Authors
Burke, Janice
Issue Date
2025
Type
Dissertation
Language
en_US
Keywords
attorney recommendation , false guilty plea , heuristics , judgment and decision-making , plea bargain , wrongful conviction
Alternative Title
Abstract
A large portion of wrongful convictions in the United States result from false guilty pleas. To address this issue, most research has focused on factors that influence defendants’ plea decisions. However, recent research suggests that attorneys’ plea recommendations play a significant role in shaping defendants’ plea decisions. Given their influence in the plea-bargaining process, it is crucial to understand factors that influence attorneys’ plea recommendations to identify situations where they might advise clients to falsely plead guilty. My colleagues and I conducted four experiments across three articles to investigate factors that influence attorneys’ plea recommendations, utilizing diverse theoretical frameworks and methodological approaches. In the first article (Chapter 2), we conducted two experiments to examine the influence of factors from the Shadow of the Trial (SoT) theory on mock attorneys’ plea recommendations. For Experiment 1, mock attorneys read case vignettes that manipulated factors from the original SoT, including conviction probability via evidence strength and potential trial sentence. For Experiment 2, mock attorneys read case vignettes that manipulated factors from the expanded SoT, including conviction probability, potential trial sentence, and defendant guilt status. The findings from both experiments demonstrated that all the SoT factors—conviction probability, potential trial sentence, and defendant guilt status—affected mock attorneys’ plea recommendations. In the second article (Chapter 3), we conducted an experiment to examine the influence of factors from Fuzzy Trace Theory (FTT)—gist versus verbatim processing—on practicing attorneys’ plea recommendations and related thought processes. Attorneys engaged in a plea simulation that manipulated factors from SoT and measured their cognitive processing styles. The findings revealed that attorneys’ cognitive processing styles influenced how SoT factors affected their plea recommendations, indicating that individual differences play a crucial role in attorneys’ decision-making. In the third article (Chapter 4), we conducted an experiment to examine the influence of factors from Prospect Theory (PT)—diminishing sensitivity and reference dependence—on practicing attorneys’ plea recommendations and related thought processes. Attorneys engaged in a plea simulation that manipulated the defendant guilt status and potential trial sentence. The findings showed that both factors influenced attorneys’ plea recommendations, suggesting that attorneys consider both the severity of trial outcomes and the defendant’s guilt or innocence when advising on plea deals. Collectively, these findings provide valuable insight into the cognitive and contextual factors that shape attorneys’ plea recommendations, which highlight the complexity of legal decision-making and need for further research to enhance accuracy and fairness in the plea-bargaining process.