Statistical analysis of snow-pack stability in the northern Sierra Nevada, California
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Authors
Swanson, Kirk Edward
Issue Date
1990
Type
Thesis
Language
en_US
Keywords
avalanche phenomena , avalanche forecasting model , Alpine Meadows Ski Resort , California , avalanche forecaster , time series relationships , meteorologic conditions , avalanche activity , correlation coefficients , avalanche paths , snowfall , snow settlement , moisture content , crown fracture height , regression models , bedsurface shear strength , snowfall accumulation , avalanche snow loading zones , Mackay Science Project
Alternative Title
Abstract
Quantitative relationships were required to help understand avalanche phenomena and create an avalanche forecasting model at Alpine Meadows Ski Resort, California. Currently avalanche forecasting relies entirely on the avalanche forecaster's previous experience. Time series relationships between meteorologic conditions and avalanche activity were determined using correlation coefficients for controlled avalanche paths. The depth of snowfall, wind speed and snow settlement were determined to be the most important factors in determining avalanche activity. Temperature and moisture content data demonstrated less consistent correlation coefficients. Forecasting models were developed using least squares multiple regression techniques to forecast avalanche activity based on the U.S. Forest Service avalanche size classification, the crown fracture height and the percentage of the avalanche path that slid. The regression models were able to correctly predict the avalanche activity on 50 to 88 percent of the potential avalanche days based on the above criteria. To improve the model, methods for accurately measuring the bedsurface shear strength and estimating snowfall accumulation in the various avalanche snow loading zones is necessary.
Description
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Citation
Publisher
University of Nevada, Reno
License
In Copyright(All Rights Reserved)