Does Experiencing a Crash Make All the Difference? An Experiment on the Depression Babies Hypothesis
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Authors
Safford, Amanda
Sundali, James
Guerrero, L. Federico
Issue Date
2018
Type
Article
Language
Keywords
laboratory experiments , investment decisions , behavioral finance , asset allocation , depression babies , myopic loss aversion
Alternative Title
Abstract
Do people who lived through the depression take fewer financial risks because of the negative returns experienced? More generally, what is the importance of historical return streams on current investment decisions? This experiment tests this experience hypothesis and finds that subjects who experience a great crash hold, on average, 6% less of their assets in stocks than subjects who did not experience the crash, after controlling for gender, employment status, and financial literacy. Our results suggest that subjects who experience a significant market crash have lower and more volatile beliefs regarding future stock returns. Furthermore, we find that experiencing a crash causes a significant difference in the overall belief distributions between the two groups, with the crash cohort holding more realistic beliefs about future stock market returns.
Description
Citation
Safford, A., Sundali, J., & Guerrero, F. (2018). Does Experiencing a Crash Make All the Difference? An Experiment on the Depression Babies Hypothesis. SAGE Open, 8(2), 215824401877873. doi:10.1177/2158244018778734
Publisher
Journal
Volume
Issue
PubMed ID
ISSN
2158-2440