Recent and Future Climate-Induced Range Shifts of Four High-Elevation Rare Forbs in Great Basin National Park, USA.
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Authors
Plafcan, Wade
Issue Date
2022
Type
Thesis
Language
Keywords
alpine , national park service , plants , rare , sdm , species distribution model
Alternative Title
Abstract
Climate change is altering the distribution and ranges for many plant species. As a result, some species are moving up in elevation to track suitable environmental conditions. This poses a distinct threat for alpine plants, because they already exist at high elevations and may run out of habitat due to their position on mountain tops. This study uses vegetation survey data and species distribution models to investigate recent changes and future range shift projections for four alpine forbs. Silene nachlingerae, Eriogonum holmgrenii, Primula cusickiana var. nevadensis and Penstemon leiophyllus var. francisci-pennellii in Great Basin National Park, Nevada. We gathered location data from a 2004-2006 survey and conducted additional surveys in 2021. Ensemble species distribution models were created for each species using the BIOMOD R package and a combination of climatic, topographic and geological spatial variables. All models yielded high performance scores using TSS, AUC and other assessment measures. Models were projected to years 2050 and 2070 using four climate projections. We selected future climate projections from two different emissions scenarios and a pool of models. We also compare spatial patterns of species occurrence between the two surveys to detect movement of species in the 15 years between surveys. Future SDM projections indicate a substantial loss of habitat for Silene, a moderate loss for Penstemon and potential expansions for Eriogonum and Primula. Upward elevational shifts (40 m to 200 m) were detected in all species in the 15 years between surveys and SDMs predict upward elevation shifts for Silene and Penstemon. The results of this study are concordant with other research on alpine plants and climate change induced range shifts. Changes vary in magnitude and direction and are largely species dependent. The drastically different results between future model predictions highlight the importance of using a range of climate models when projecting SDMs into the future. These findings suggest that long-term monitoring plots will be an important tool to quantitatively track future changes and this study provides location-specific information that will be important in prioritizing conservation and assisting park management.